How society will react to a pandemic
In recent years we have been bombarded with TV specials, documentaries and government announcements all related to bird flu. We have been inundated with what steps we should take, what the risks are, how it spreads and how likely it is to happen. What we have not been told is what is likely to happen to our society should a pandemic occur. Let us examine a 0.5% fatality contagious fast spreading influenza pandemic. This perspective will be of someone living in the United States.
The World Health Organization (WHO) declares a pandemic in China. Those who are worried will start stocking up on face masks, gloves and medical supplies. There may be some limited stockpiling of food items but this is not likely to be the top priority at this stage. Expect an upsurge in pandemic related web sites selling anything and everything for marked up prices. Stocks and delivery times will be delayed from even reputable web sites and stores.
Top priorities for most people:
- Getting Tamiflu pills.
- Getting cold and flu medicines.
- Getting face masks and gloves.
- Relying on the government to tell them what to do.
- Checking the on-line reference material.
With 36 hours the first U.S. cases are detected from flights originating in China. Attempts to quarantine are futile as the virus has already started to spread with devastating efficiency. Expect a maximum of 24 hours after a WHO pandemic declaration for the government to broadcast plans and for the majority of people to hear them (radio, TV). Therefore you have at most 24 hours to perform last minute preparations before mass buying occurs and the consumer situation becomes unmanageable. Note that even before this there is likely to be a run on critical non-food items such as masks and Tamiflu.
Within two days expect the following to occur to the supply chains:
- Massive initial run on consumables as people stock up.
- Government or supermarkets may place restrictions on the amount that can be bought. These will arrive too late in most cases.
- As a result of short term shortages people will panic buy whenever a new shipment arrives resulting in a self perpetuating cycle.
- Some disruption to the supply chain.
- High probability that supermarkets will be "infection" zones due to the number of people passing through. This risk will increase as the pandemic spreads.
Those individuals who perform the necessary tasks involved with the supply chain (truck drivers, stock workers etc) are in the majority of cases classified as belonging to the middle to low economic class. It is unlikely that those in this class will have large amounts of savings to fall back on. It is therefore probable that the majority will turn up to work if they are in a fit state to do so as they rely on their weekly pay check to survive.
There is likely to be an upsurge in petty theft, breaking and entering and muggings for food. The National Guard is called in to quell riots as some individuals revel in the chaos. From here things are likely to get worse. Do not underestimate how far ordinary people will go to saved their loved ones. In the face of a bed stricken wife and two starving children crying out for food how far would the average father go if they had a choice between saving their family or someone else's?
How bad it will get is open to speculation but just remember that as a society we are ever more dependent on the supply chain. If just one part of that chain fails then the whole system will grind to a halt.
Just remember the following three points:
- It is not a matter of "if" but "when" a pandemic is declared.
- Having a plan is not the same as being prepared.
- Every society is only three meals away from revolution.
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